In "Trump vs. Biden: 10" I highlighted the tightening of the race (according to nationwide polls). Changes in the 15 days since that post have been slightly in Trump's favor. Below are results, which I have parsed in three ways:
all polls, unadjusted for bias (with polynomial fits for smoothing)
the latest version of each pollster’s result, unadjusted for bias
the latest version of each pollster’s result, adjusted for bias (using each pollster's bias in 2020)
Here's a fourth way to look at the results:
The values represent the change in Trump's lead (or deficit) since the preceding poll by the same pollster. The typical margin of error for a poll (statistical estimate of the accuracy of the poll) is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Most of the movements are within that range. Therefore, what all of the preceding graphs point to is a race that is now essentially tied.
Well, it's tied if the polls aren't picking up "hidden" Trump voters -- Trump voters who aren't telling pollsters their true intentions. If there are enough such voters to swing the election to Trump, it won't become evident until the votes are counted.
Until then, I can only tell you what the polls are saying.