If you have read "Election 2024: The Bottom Line" or "Election 2024 in Perspective" you will understand why I use "glimmer of hope" to refer to a possible Trump victory in November. The glimmer of hope that I see is Trump's standing in the polls this time around compared with his standing in the polls at this point in 2016 and 2020. Specific
I collected all of the two-way polling results reported at realclearpolitics.com for the elections of 2016 and 2020. I weeded out all of the polls that were conducted before June of each election year and plotted the numbers for the rest: the Democrat candidates' polling lead or deficit vs. number of days before the election. I have also begun to plot similar numbers for this year's election. Here are the results as of today:
The plot points represent the Democrat candidates' lead or deficit vs. Trump. Two polls with the same average date (June 4) gave Biden and average lead of 0.5 point. A third poll with an average date gave Trump a narrow lead of 1 point, which converts to a Biden deficit of 1 point.
Clearly, Trump is doing a lot better in the polls this year than he was doing at this time in 2016 and 2020. But a lot can happen between now and when voting starts. A lot did happen to Clinton (2016) and Biden (2020) -- and it wasn't good for them.
Clinton's polling was all over the place, but she ended up 2.9 points ahead of Trump for polls conducted in the seven days before the election. She "won" the nationwide popular vote by 2.1 percentage points (plotted on the right axis). But she lost the electoral vote because of Trump's narrow wins in a few key States.
Biden never relinquished his lead in the polls. He ended up 7.6 points ahead of Trump for polls conducted in the seven days before the election. He "won" the nationwide popular vote by 4.6 percentage points (plotted on the right axis). But he won the electoral vote only because of narrow wins in a few key States.
If there's a pattern, it's this: Polls, in the aggregate, overstate Democrats' shares of the nationwide popular vote -- at least when they're up against Trump. Further, because of the electoral college, it takes a large margin in the final polls to be certain of victory -- if you're a Democrat. The necessary margin is greater than final Biden's 7.6-point lead in the 2020 polls.
Conclusion: Biden is in deep trouble, as of now. But election day is five months away. Thus: a glimmer of hope.