RealClearPolitics maintains a running tally of presidential election polls (among many others). RCP has also assessed the accuracy of the final presidential-election polls issued by ten major pollsters in 2016 and 2020.
Adjusting the polling results issued by five of the pollsters in October for each pollsters' average accuracy in 2016-20, I estimated Trump's and Biden's shares of the two-party popular vote. I then applied my algorithm for the relationship between share of electoral vote and share of two-party popular vote,
My initial result: If the election had been held last month, Trump would have won 52 percent of the two-party vote and garnered 58 to 62 percent of the electoral vote.
I will continue this exercise until election day 2024. In the interim, more of the ten pollsters will publish results more often and one or both of the principals may be replaced.
Stay tuned.